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Professor Ali Gamal Abdelgawad: Comprehensive Analysis of the EUR/USD Pair

• بواسطة دكتور علي جمال عبد الجواد
• 2025 Dec 03
• 1436

Prepared by: Professor Ali Gamal Abdel Gawad – Lecturer of Investment and Finance

 Comprehensive Analysis of the EUR/USD Pair

The EUR/USD pair experienced positive movement during trading on December 3, 2025, reaching 1.1644 with a daily increase of 0.16%. This performance extends the upward trend that began in the middle of the third quarter of the year.

First: Price Action Overview
• Current Price: 1.1644
• Opening Price: 1.1609
• Previous Close: 1.1625
• Daily Range: 1.1591 – 1.1648
• 52-Week Range: 1.0146 – 1.1919
• 1-Year Change: 10.81%
These figures indicate that the pair is moving near monthly highs, with the yearly trend for 2025 remaining strongly bullish.

Second: General Trend
Short-Term Trend (Daily-Weekly)
Daily and weekly movements show continued slight upward momentum:
• Weekly: 0.43%
• Monthly: 1.09%
This reflects that buyers are still in control of trading.
Medium-Term Trend (3-6 Months)
• Three-Month: Slight decline of 0.15%
• Six-Month: Rise of 2.40%
This indicates that the recent decline was merely a correction before the upward trend resumes.
Long-Term Trend
• One-Year: Strong rise of 10.81%
• Five-Year: Decline of 4.08%
The long-term trend is mixed but tends towards gradual improvement.

Third: Support and Resistance Levels
Support Levels
1. 1.1600
2. 1.1550
3. 1.1480
Resistance Levels
1. 1.1650
2. 1.1720
3. Level 1.1850
A break above 1.1650 would be a strong indication of continued upward movement towards higher highs.

Fourth: Price Action
The last candle on December 3rd moved within a narrow range, with limited fluctuation between the opening and closing prices. This reflects a calm atmosphere as traders await upcoming economic data.

Fifth: Fundamental Factors
1. European Central Bank Policy
Expectations of a slower pace of interest rate cuts support the euro.

2. US Monetary Policy
Markets are watching the Federal Reserve's moves closely, and any move towards monetary easing puts pressure on the dollar.

3. European Economic Performance
Although growth in the Eurozone remains weak, it is showing signs of gradual improvement.

Key takeaway:
The divergence between interest rates in Europe and the United States is the most influential factor supporting the euro's appreciation against the dollar. Sixth: Expected Scenarios
Bullish Scenario (Most Likely)
• Hold above 1.1600
• Break above 1.1650
• Target 1.1720 then 1.1850
Bearish Scenario
If the 1.1590 level is broken, the pair may correct towards:
• 1.1550
• 1.1480

The EUR/USD pair is moving in an ascending channel and is approaching a significant resistance level at 1.1650.

Breaking this level would signal the continuation of the bullish trend towards 1.1800-1.1900.

However, a drop below 1.1590 would be merely a limited correction within the overall upward trend.

• الوسوم
• Professor
• Ali
• Gamal
• Abdelgawad:
• Comprehensive
• Analysis
• of
• the
• EUR/USD
• Pair
• Professor Ali Gamal Abdelgawad: Comprehensive Analysis of the EUR/USD Pair